Sunday, April 26, 2020
fragmentary notes from a bad time getting worse (2)
Disclaimer: I don’t know what I’m talking about. These posts are snapshots of what I was thinking on a given date so I can check myself later.
As I write this, early Sunday morning:
- WHO: 2,804,796 confirmed cases and 193,710 deaths globally
- NY Times: 938,590 cases and 48,310 deaths in the US
In my rough personal chronology, I’m marking today, or at any rate this weekend, as the point at which it seems like any very effective degree of social distancing ended locally. A steady trickle of people in neighbors' yards, a straight up party a few blocks down the way, a trip to the beer store where it was pretty clear that no one shopping or working there had any fucks left to give about transmission-limiting measures. Big packs of old guys on Harleys and young guys on crotch rockets, rumbling and screeching, respectively, through town. It’s probably not evenly distributed, but I’m guessing it feels similar a lot of places up and down the Colorado Front Range.
So: Does the disease move like I think it does after reading far too many “an expert said this” articles, or is it somehow not as bad as all that?
I think we’re going to find out, because it seems like we’ve just about exhausted whatever social / political / administrative capacity we had to mitigate things in a lot of the US.
We’ve been stricter than average about limiting contact with people outside our household, I think. We’ve got computer jobs that can happen from home, which makes that a lot more possible. Still, the social pressure to give up on it is substantial. I can feel myself shifting into the category of humorless, uptight asshole in the context of my relationships around town. Mostly, people are going to yield to pressures like that, sooner rather than later.
I wonder what this is going to look like in a week, or a month. I have some guesses and I hope I’m wrong about all of them.